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JULIANA:“You go to the market and notice: the price of tomatoes has skyrocketed, the lettuce wilts before you even get home, and beans are getting more and more expensive. Is inflation to blame? Partly, yes. But there’s another factor that weighs more than the price of the shopping bag: the climate. It rained where it shouldn’t have, and there was a lack of rain where it was essential. When the weather goes crazy, the crops suffer—and we suffer along with them. And what sounds like meteorologist talk is actually a matter of soil quality.What few people know is that the soil can be the great hero of this story. It breathes, stores, recycles, and returns carbon to nature. It’s an invisible cycle, but essential.”
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(((ENTERS A BRIEF NEWS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE))): “The UN today published the report that will serve as the basis for discussions on climate change at COP30 in Belém. Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted that humanity is failing to meet its climate goals.”
JULIANA – Climate change caused by global warming is no longer news. But the truth is that many people don’t know what it means or the origin of the problem.
PROF. CERRI – Global climate change is a consequence of global warming, which, in turn, is a consequence of the very high concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
JULIANA – This is Professor Carlos Eduardo Cerri, one of the world’s leading experts on climate change and carbon.
PROF. CERRI – The atmosphere has several layers. The first layer, closest to the surface, is called the troposphere. It is there that 90% of the climatic effects occur. This layer, being close to the Earth’s surface, receives the greenhouse gases that we, human beings, emit into the atmosphere.
What happens is that the high concentration of these gases increases the temperature, a phenomenon called global warming. Why? Because the infrared radiation emanating from Earth interacts with these gases, causing a temperature increase.
The Earth, in order to readjust to this new pattern with the increase in temperature, with global warming, is changing climate patterns. Climate patterns that we characterize as extreme events.
So, it could be excessive rain in one location, a dry spell, a very prolonged drought in another, changes in temperature, intensity of storms, lightning, frost, hail. These are all examples of climatic events that, in fact, climate change, as I mentioned, are caused by increased temperatures, global warming, which, in turn, is caused by a higher concentration of gases.
JULIANA – Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, nitrogen… There are more than 20 gases that cause the greenhouse effect.But who are the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases? Is it industry? Cars? Or agriculture? And ultimately, what is true and what is exaggerated when it comes to the impact of agriculture?
I’m Juliana Ramiro and this is CCARBONCast, the podcast that connects you to the science of climate and carbon. In this episode Ipromise you’ll understand this once and for all. In fact, there will be 12 episodes showing how science can point the way to more sustainable paths for the planet.
The truth is that the agricultural sector has a fundamental role in this discussion: it can be part of the problem, but also part of the solution. And it is precisely here that research on carbon in agriculture comes in. These are studies that seek ways to produce more while emitting less.
This is the field in which CCARBON/USP, the Center for Carbon Research in Tropical Agriculture at the University of São Paulo, operates. The Center gathers data and solutions to support decisions and, of course, inform society. Because technology and innovation can be great allies in reducing environmental impacts without harming productivity.
((( BRIEF PAUSE IN THE NARRATION – transition track ))
JULIANA – According to the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the planet has already warmed by approximately 1.5°C in relation to pre-industrial levels — a critical point which many scientists see as a safety limit. The UN warns that above two degrees,the risks of climate collapse are increasing dramatically, affecting ecosystems, food security, and millions of people.
To avoid this, global emissions would need to be cut in half by 2030. But current commitments point to an increase of up to 2.7°C until the end of the century. In the last eight years, temperatures have broken consecutive records, and even if all the goals were met, CO2 concentrations would continue to grow.
Therefore, it’s not enough to reduce emissions—it’s also necessary to remove carbon from the atmosphere. But where do greenhouse gases come from?
Professor Carlos Eduardo Cerri, who is one of the creators of CCARBON and is among the five most influential Brazilian scientists in the global ranking of climate researchers, according to Reuters, he explains:
PROF. CERRI – And these emissions come from the activities of our colleagues who are listening to us. When we have, for example, industrial activity, or the burning of fossil fuels in vehicles.
So, individuals who use gasoline, diesel, and natural gas are using fossil fuels. In industry, coal is sometimes used in addition to these other fuels. When we have a conversion of vegetation, for example, deforestation, cutting down native vegetation and setting it on fire, gas will be emitted into the atmosphere.
It’s in agriculture, livestock farming, and forestry. It’s interesting to remember that 73% of all global greenhouse gas emissions come from burning fossil fuels.
So you see, if we want to mitigate, reduce, or solve the problem, this is a major source of emissions. 73% of emissions come from burning fossil fuels.
Then, around 20%, globally speaking, comes from agriculture, plus livestock farming, plus forestry, plus land-use change. All together, these activities are placed in the same sector, which globally accounts for 20% of emissions.
So, there are the big players, the major sources of emissions that we need to address globally so that this problem can be reduced and, hopefully, solved.
JULIANA – Agriculture contributes to the problem, but it also suffers from it.
A study published on Nature shows that crops such as soybeans, corn, and wheat may reach 30% from reduced productivity until 2050.
According to the FAO, another problem is the alteration of planting and harvesting periods, affected by the increase in temperature. In Rio Grande do Sul, for example, droughts between 2020 and 2022 were followed by extreme rainfall in 2024, with billion-dollar losses.
PROF. CERRI –Temperature, precipitation, distribution, and quantity over time are very important. So, if there are changes in climate patterns, this affects the sector most impacted, which is agriculture. In the case of Brazil, according to a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, there is an acronym, IPCC, Brazil is one of the countries that will suffer the greatest impact.
This is bad news for us. Why? Because at list 25% of our GDP in Brazil is directly linked to agribusiness. If there is an impact on the production of these raw materials, it affects not only, as some imagine, the producer who is out in the field, not only the surroundings of large cities, but also the country’s economy as a whole.
So, anyone who thinks they won’t be impacted is mistaken. Because even if that person lives in urban centers, they eat food of plant and animal origin, and occasionally use some biofuel that comes from the countryside. If you’re wearing clothes like you are wearing – me too.
This is fiber. This is cotton. It doesn’t come from the store, it doesn’t come from the factory. The industry processes it, but the raw material comes from the field. So, if all these plants and animals that give origin to what we consume suffer an impact, we, consequently, are suffering as well.
JULIANA – While industry, transportation, and energy generation basically try to pollute less, agriculture has the capacity not only to reduce its emissions but also to remove carbon from the atmosphere. But the process doesn’t stop there. When the plant dies and agricultural waste is managed in a planned and efficient way, this carbon ends up in the soil through a process called carbon sequestration.
PROF. CERRI – Part of the carbon that was in the atmosphere was transferred to the plant via photosynthesis, while part of the plant’s carbon was transferred to the soil via decomposition by microorganisms.
And now it’s carbon sequestration, not just in the plant, but in the soil. So, look how interesting that is. And the coolest thing about all this isn’t having to explore new areas, it’s having to develop new technologies, improving natural processes, manipulating them so that they can become more and more efficient, while continuing without harm, continuing to produce food, fiber, and energy.
So, look how great this is. This is what agriculture, livestock farming, and forestry have been doing, and they can further increase their contributions when we adopt more and more sustainable management practices.
JULIANA – When the professor talks about management practices, he is referring to regenerative agriculture techniques — a recent term for a concept that is already known: a more sustainable agriculture.
These are cultivation methods that preserve and restore soil health, helping to improve the quality of the agricultural environment. Among them are: crop rotation, integrated systems, and no-till farming.
PROF. CERRI – It is so interesting that, as a consequence of all these actions and management practices, in addition to agriculture, livestock farming, and forestry helping to mitigate and adapt to the issue of global warming and consequent climate change, these management practices also improve the environment—soil, plants, animals, and the atmosphere.
We use a term called resilience. Resilience means making that environment more suitable, more prepared for when climatic events occur, and unfortunately they are becoming more and more frequent, so they will occur, leaving the system losing less, being impacted less.
So, I’d draw a parallel here. Imagine an athlete and a sedentary person. I think I’m more inclined towards the latter. But when both catch the flu, it’s expected that the athlete will suffer less because they are in good physical condition.
And the other, more sedentary person, with potentially weakened health, might suffer more from the same flu. Right? So, a resilient system allows our systems—soil, plants, animals, atmosphere—to be less impacted. That the losses in productivity, the loss in profitability, are smaller.
JULIANA – When we talk about climate, we are talking about carbon management — in other words, how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon storage in soil and vegetation.
That’s where the term ‘low-carbon agriculture’ comes from, a concept applied in Brazil by Plano ABC+, which guides more sustainable practices in the field. But, as Professor Cerri explains, the name can be a little misleading.
PROF. CERRI – We don’t want low-carbon agriculture. We want high-carbon agriculture. That carbon is in the plant, in the soil, in the form of microorganisms. So, we want agriculture with low carbon emissions and agriculture with high carbon removal. And these management practices allow us to carry out both strategic actions simultaneously.
JULIANA – The scenario is clear. In the face of climate change, agriculture cannot simply be part of the problem; it needs to be part of the solution. In the next episode, you’ll learn the details of CCARBON’s mission and find out why Brazil is at the heart of global food security. See you then!
(( VOICEOVER – CLOSING ))
CCARBONCast is produced by the CCARBON/USP dissemination team. This episode was narrated by Juliana Ramiro and scripted by Mariana Pollo with content review by Rodolfo Fagundes Costa. Recording took place at the TV USP studios with editing and sound design by soupods. This project is supported and funded by FAPESP.
