Assessing the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on sugarcane yield and quality in Brazil’s South-Central Region using the DSSAT-CANEGRO model

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of interannual climate variability worldwide, and its increasing frequency and intensity pose growing challenges for global agriculture and food security. In Brazil, the world’s largest sugarcane producer, ENSO events can significantly affect the crops agronomic performance. This study comprehensively examines ENSO’s impact on key yield indicators—stalk fresh yield (SFY), sugar yield (SY), and total recoverable sugar (TRS)—across Brazil’s Center-South region. Simulations using the CANEGRO/DSSAT model, calibrated for the widely cultivated RB867515 variety using locally observed data from Pradópolis and Piracicaba, SP, were performed for 24 locations, covering 56 growing seasons and 8 sowing dates, with yield and weather data categorized by ENSO phases: El Niño (EN), Neutral (NE), and La Niña (LA). Results highlighted region-specific patterns: the Northern and Central regions exhibited stable SFY and SY across ENSO phases, whereas the Southern region showed significant differences in SY and TRS. EN events consistently reduced TRS across all regions. Weather analysis revealed that EN years were associated with increased precipitation and temperatures, adversely impacting photosynthesis and biomass accumulation. Analyzing the harvest period, ENSO effects varied: SY in the North peaked under LA conditions, climbing 35.4% from April to September; in the Central region, early dry-season harvest showed advantages; whereas in the South, SFY declined steadily 21.1% through the season, although TRS improved by a statistically significant 2.8% under LA conditions compared to EN. These findings underscore the critical role of regional climate dynamics and optimized planting schedules in managing sugarcane under ENSO variability. Also, support the development of region-specific management strategies—such as optimized planting dates and harvest windows—guided by ENSO forecasts and crop model simulations, offering practical tools to mitigate climate risks and enhance both yield and quality.