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A long road to resilience: Large-scale forest recovery but limited persistence in the Atlantic Forest

Vinicius Tonettia, Marcos Reis Rosab, Bárbara Rodrigues dos Santos Paesc, d, Alex Fernando Mendesc, Carlos Delano Cardoso de Oliveiraa, Paulo Guilherme Molina, e, Julio Ricardo Caetano Tymusf, Amanda Augusta Fernandesc, g, Cézar Augusto Reis da Fonseca Borgesh, Luis Fernando Guedes Pintoi, Tainah Ribeiro Reis Godoyd, j, Bruno Henriques Coutinhok, Aline Daniele Jacona, Rafael Barreiro Chavesl, m, Rubens de Miranda Beninic, f, Leandro Reverberi-Tambosin

a Center for Natural Sciences, Federal University of São Carlos, Buri, Brazil
b Universidade de São Paulo – FFLCH – Departamento de Geografia, Brazil
c Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact, Londrina, PR, Brazil
d Brazilian Restoration Observatory, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
e Center for Carbon Research in Tropical Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, Brazil
f The Nature Conservancy Brasil, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
g Department of Forest Sciences, “Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil
h WWF Brazil, Brasília, DF, Brazil
i Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica, Itu, SP, Brazil
j Brazilian Coalition on Climate, Forests and Agriculture, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
k Conservation International Brazil, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
l Environmental Research Institute, Secretariat for Environment, Infrastructure and Logistics of the State of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
m Department of Ecology, Institute of Biosciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
n Center for Engineering, Modeling and Applied Social Sciences, Federal University of ABC, Santo André, SP, Brazil

Highlights

  • 1.67 million hectares of native forest were recovered in the Atlantic Forest between 2011 and 2021 and persisted until 2023.
  • 568 thousand hectares of recovered forests in the study period did not persist until 2023.
  • Strengthening secondary forest protection is urgent to ensure their long-term persistence.

Abstract

Spatially explicit identification of forest recovery at large scales plays a key role in revealing spatial patterns of forest regrowth and assisting the achievement of ambitious restoration targets. We assessed forest recovery across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain using annual high-resolution (∼30 m) land cover maps. From 2011 to 2021, 1.67 million hectares were recovered and persisted until 2023. Nevertheless, 568 thousand hectares of recovered forest were subsequently lost and did not persist until 2023, underscoring the vulnerability of young forests and the need for effective protection. Strengthening legislation and incentive mechanisms, such as Payment for Ecosystem Services, are critical to protect recovering forests. As most recovered forests likely result from natural regeneration, our findings highlight its strategic role in enabling large-scale, cost-effective restoration in Brazil.
Keywords
Ecological restoration; Decade on ecosystem restoration; Forest regeneration; Forest restoration; Landscape restoration; Secondary forest
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