By Danielle Denny* and Jean Ometto**
9 December 2025 saw the launch of the long-awaited Global Environment Outlook (GEO7) , the seventh edition of the leading global environmental assessment, coordinated by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). GEO7 makes it clear that the world is at a crossroads: either it rapidly changes the way it produces energy, food and materials, or the costs of inaction – economic, social and environmental – will be many times greater than the investments needed to act now. The main message of GEO7 is that this is not just an environmental problem, but also one of security, energy, food and economic development.
The three planetary crises – climate change, pollution/waste, and biodiversity loss/degradation – are interconnected and are already undermining human well-being. The systemic effect that one factor can generate, triggering others, is underestimated. Even if the world manages to stay within the targets (Paris Agreement, Kunming-Montreal and Degradation Neutrality) , several points of no return will be exceeded; therefore, the recommendation is to keep impact levels ‘as low as possible.’ If current trends continue, the probability of crossing multiple tipping points in the coming decades is high.
The good news is that GEO7 scenario modelling indicates that it is still possible to meet environmental and social commitments and targets, but this requires an unprecedented, integrated, rapid, radical and innovative transformation of interdependent and interconnected systems: economy, finance, energy, food and materials/waste. The transition involves a combination of technological, behavioural and governance changes, supported by a “whole-government” approach – involving not only environment ministries, but also energy, agriculture and finance ministries – and a “whole-society” approach, including the private sector and the financial system.
The figures are compelling: we need to improve efficiency in everything – from energy and land use to implementing circularity in material consumption – and change lifestyles. This transformation will reduce emissions and environmental pressures while generating increasing macroeconomic benefits from 2050 onwards. It is clear that the cost of acting is lower than the cost of not acting: by 2070, the transformation could generate annual benefits in the order of hundreds of billions of dollars, lift 150 million people out of extreme poverty and prevent 9 million premature deaths by 2050, with 1.2 million by 2030 from air pollution reduction alone, imagine if we take into account the other ecosystem benefits.
Another key point is the pricing of nature in the economy. Our economic model has been ineffective in pricing positive externalities and paying for ecosystem benefits, leading society to linear production, the use of hydrocarbons, increased inequalities and degradation. Economic and financial systems must evolve, moving beyond gross domestic product (GDP) as the sole measure of progress.
At least half of global GDP depends directly on ecosystem services. The GEO7 advocates a transition to circular systems, with new production models and even alternative GDP models that recognise ecological limits. This would involve the creation of integrated socio-economic and environmental accounting systems, for example, based on existing approaches to natural capital accounting, in order to reflect a broader notion of progress and support policy decision-making. The EU’s Investment Plan for a Sustainable Europe and New Zealand’s wellbeing budgets are examples of innovations that demonstrate how fiscal reforms can align economies with environmental goals.
The GEO7 presents the facts, but it cannot steer governments and society in the right direction. To turn knowledge into action, it will be necessary to align the economy and finance in practice – including assigning economic value to nature – and to get the private sector to work together with governments. The political dimension is fundamental in a complex context: geopolitical conflicts, mistrust of multilateralism and disputes over sensitive issues that hinder coordinated responses. Current policy tools are not equipped to deal with the synergies between crises – hence the need to invent new instruments and complementary and participatory governance arrangements.
The GEO7 report included specific contributions from indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLC), including their worldviews and expertise on topics related to sustainable, social and solidarity-based economies. It identified the need to strengthen indigenous political organisation; revitalise and transmit knowledge across generations; provide legal protection for their territories and ways of life; and ensure a responsible and just energy transition. Thus, transformative solutions are possible if there are coordinated actions on five fronts: economy and finance, materials and waste, energy, food and the environment, with the participation of society.
Policy responses need to be adapted to each country and region, respecting economic and ecological realities. Priorities may be similar, but solutions cannot simply be imported. For developed countries, fulfilling financing commitments, transferring technology and reducing regional socioeconomic disparities is critical.
With regard to Latin America and the Caribbean, the GEO7 summarises the challenge as follows: if current trends continue, the region will face irreversible environmental degradation and cumulative socioeconomic risks by mid-century. On the other hand, integrated reforms in economic, financial and governance systems, combined with circular economy strategies, smart electrification, decentralised renewable energy and short food systems based on integrated production systems, leveraging the management of IPLCs and traditional communities, can align economic transformation, environmental sustainability and social inclusion, generating a new model of socio-environmental development.
The main message of GEO7 is that conflicts and crises, which were previously treated separately, now intersect. Either governments and society connect these agendas and seize the opportunity with nature-based solutions, making the energy transition and transformation in the use of materials the new centre of the economy, or climate and ecological points of no return will make this connection in the worst possible way.
Denny Thame is a researcher at the Centre for Research and Innovation in Greenhouse Gases (RCGI) and the Centre for Carbon Research in Tropical Agriculture (CCARBON/USP) at the Luiz de Queiroz School of Agriculture, University of São Paulo.
**Jean Ometto is a Senior Researcher at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Head of the Strategic Projects Division (DIPE/INPE) and Deputy Coordinator of the Brazilian Climate Change Research Network (Rede Clima).
Both are co-authors of GEO7.
References
4 SCHWARZ, Roberto, As ideias fora do lugar, [s.l.]: Penguin-Companhia, 2022.
